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China Art Market Outlook & Analysis 2020-21

The “2020 Central Academy of Fine Arts Art Market Weekly Forum and the Release of the Global Art Market Literature Database” was held online recently, sponsored by the Art Market Weekly of the Central Academy of Fine Arts of China. This forum expects to provide theoretical support for the healthy development of China’s art market through the collaboration of researchers and practitioners.

As Zhao Li, the convener of the forum and professor and doctoral supervisor of the School of Art Management and Education at the Central Academy of Fine Arts of China, said, 2020 is indeed a very important year, with more diverse and complicated views, strategies, and operations in the debate between globalization and de-globalization, between the rise of central and emerging markets, and between technological integration and cultural market innovation. And 2021 has arrived, the future is here, and uncertainty will eventually become certain.

Museums and Galleries in the Post-Pandemic Era

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at the end of 2019 disrupted the pace of the global art market, and museums and galleries around the world have been significantly affected by the “social distancing”. Overall, museums and galleries are facing unprecedented operational pressures in this particular year of 2020. In the face of this crisis, state support is essential, and their own strategic adjustments are crucial.

Gao Gao, deputy director of the Art Museum of the Central Academy of Fine Arts of China, and Shao Shu, executive director of the Art Museum of China, offered their observations and insights on the museum and art museum industries in 2020. First, Gao Gao said that 2020 is a year of uncertainty for museums and galleries, and that familiarity with this uncertainty and how to deal with it will continue for at least the next 2-3 years, so museums must consider what their core work will be, which staff to retain and where to retain funding.

In addition, art museums around the world have responded positively to the impact of the pandemic by opening up areas of function and activity online. The difference between online exhibitions in Chinese and foreign art museums is that Chinese museums experiment more with purely virtual spaces and virtual exhibitions, while abroad they are more about the digitization of collections, including high-definition images, videos and many other forms. However, whether online or not, the core task of an art museum is to research the collection. Under the influence of the pandemic, there is a lack of one-on-one communication between the audience and the “objects”, so the knowledge behind the online exhibition is increasingly important in terms of planning, validity and interestingness.

Shao Shu, on the other hand, expressed his preference for an online exhibition that directly places images from offline exhibitions on the Internet, as this approach does not establish a connection between the audience and the “objects” and loses the meaning of the museum itself. He is more in favor of a purely virtual online exhibition, providing a new way of viewing the exhibition for the audience. In addition, he said that although the pandemic has had an impact on art museums, it has not had a significant impact on the Chinese art museum industry in particular, as he is aware that more than a dozen art museums in China are already in full swing preparing to open. In the past, some galleries have had problems with frequent exhibition changes and social events, so the stoppage caused by the pandemic is not a bad thing.

When it comes to the issue of how some museums and galleries sold their collections and used restricted funds to solve the financial pressure during the pandemic, Gao said that he could understand museums selling their collections, as they must have made such a difficult decision out of necessity.

Shao Shu believes that it is good to have such a solution to the problem, because some museums not only do not have collections to sell, but also do not have restricted funds to use. He also pointed out that in addition to the impact of the pandemic, many museums are actually facing financial problems. Selling a collection is a prudent decision, and museums will self-evaluate whether the collection is eligible for sale, such as whether it is the only artist in the collection, and whether the purpose of the sale is to maintain daily expenses and buy a better collection, and only after such careful consideration will museums sell their collections.

Art Market Policy and Regulatory Trends

In 2020, cultural policies and regulatory trends in various countries are changing significantly due to political, economic, and pandemic influences. Li Tingwei, a contributing researcher at Tsinghua University’s China Industry Research Center, and Yang Xiling, an Olympic branding scholar and expert in national brand standards assessment, engaged in a conversation around issues related to the forum’s theme.

Yang discussed the adjustment of cultural policies in various countries under the influence of the pandemic, and argued that cultural policy adjustment should focus on its background, purpose and decision-making basis. For art policymaking, it is more important to consider the values behind it, firstly, the special attributes of art and cultural industry, including continuity, artistry and social consensus on values. At the same time, in the long run, the purpose of making cultural policies is to improve national soft power, and the pandemic has brought to light the special nature and vulnerability of the art industry ecology in the short term, with implications for the future development of long-term policies. In the process of developing with the help of policies, cultural subjects have to use them to solve conflicts. On the premise of understanding various policies, by seizing the breakthrough point of digitization and connecting the four aspects of content, technology, media and finance, we can further research new business models that can adapt to the needs of human beings in a “silicon-based” civilization, and use policies to launch new business models to bring people a new life in the midst of the great changes in humanity.

Li Tingwei analyzed the future development trend of culture and art in China in the context of the popularization of online art and the 14th Five-Year Plan, saying that the development of the culture and art industry affected by the 2020 pandemic is always a “crisis” with “opportunities”, and that online art is both a passive response and a proactive one. Online art is both a passive response and an active exploration process, and will form a kind of inertia, cultivating new art experience and consumption habits. The four elements of the digital culture industry: connection, integration, platform, and interaction, will also affect the art industry, and parallelism between online and offline should be the basic trend and pattern in the future.

In addition, in the process of popularizing online art communication, the aesthetic and educational functions of art are better spread, and the role of flow and socialization is more obvious. At the same time, we should be careful not to replace the individualization of art creation with the popularization of art communication; we need both viewers with more empathy and creators full of individuality. In 2021, the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, under the leadership of national policies, the demand side of online art is more diversified and popularized, while the supply side is more personalized and interactive, and in terms of art promotion further The advantages of platformization and precision were brought into play.

Exploration and Symbiosis: Technology and Art Integration Development

Under the predicament brought about by the pandemic, a large number of cultural and art institutions are forced to seek online transformation, and the orientation that technology can generate goes far beyond this, and the dimensions of online art ecological construction are gradually being discussed. Director of the Planning Center of Tencent Research Institute, Executive Editor-in-Chief of “Internet Frontier” magazine, Zhou Zhenghua, Director of “Youth Art 100”, and President of Beijing Mingtai Culture and Art Co., Ltd. Peng Wei discusses the development trend of technological, digital, and online domestic cultural and art institutions Conversation.

Zhou Zhenghua said that the integration of art and technology is a process of mutual promotion and development, and that art also provides people with a new perspective on technology. Under the influence of the pandemic, the onlineization of various industries has accelerated, but at the same time some problems and challenges have been exposed, such as the impact of the degree of aesthetic education of online users on user experience, and how to clarify the art needs of the nation and thus better provide art services. At the same time, it is necessary to establish a new online thinking logic, grasp the needs of new users and consumers, and complete the transformation between online and offline, art and business.

Peng Wei, as a professional with many years of experience in the art industry, discussed the impact of technology and online on the art industry from the perspective of the ten-year development of “Youth Art 100”. In terms of the structure of artworks, multimedia works, multimedia interactive works, and installations have proliferated in this decade, and this trend is not initiated by the industry but is the result of the self-regulatory development of the integration of technology and art. The fusion of technology and art has also brought about an upgrade in the art experience and contributed to the development of diversified audience composition.

Shift, Integration and Model Innovation in the Gallery Market

In 2020, on the one hand, the gallery industry has gone from being initially overwhelmed to creating a new pattern in timely adjustments in a crisis-ridden situation. On the other hand, the anti-racism and diversification that the art world has been focusing on have made more breakthroughs. Collectively, the importance of audience experience and ethnic diversity is an important trend in the development of the gallery industry. After the big wave, the consolidation and shift of the global gallery space also reflect the future development focus of the market. Dong Daoz, Director of Lisson Gallery Shanghai, and Li Lanfang, President of the Beijing Gallery Association and Head of Art – Triumph Gallery, have a dialogue on the crisis and response of the gallery industry in 2020.

Dong Daozi, Shanghai Director of Lisson Gallery, introduced that Lisson Gallery 2020 thought about the strategy during the pandemic from the end of January to the beginning of February, observing the online measures and activities in different areas, hoping to give the Shanghai team a quicker adjustment of the strategy. Through the opportunity of Art Basel Hong Kong moving to online, the gallery team united five galleries from different regions in Asia to conduct online guided tours, providing quality service to the audience, achieving good results and now becoming a regular project. In addition to the purpose of expanding the impact, we also hope to establish a good industry ecology, as the galleries are smaller and more protective of information, we hope that by establishing a platform to share and return to focusing on the art content itself, rather than technical competition.

Li Lanfang, president of the Beijing Gallery Association and head of Art – Triumph Gallery, firstly reviewed the current situation of local galleries in 2020, which mainly went through two stages, from February to May, Beijing galleries were in the “panic period”, but there were already online platforms organizing online exhibitions, and some galleries also had some sales through live broadcast Some galleries also have certain sales breakthroughs through live streaming and other means, but there are still differences between galleries in the degree of information development, backstage technology and online exhibition technology; from June to August, the galleries enter a more stable state and begin to try exhibition openings, audience reservations, etc.; from September to December, galleries in China are in good shape, Art Shenzhen, Shanghai ART021, Art Guangzhou and other expos for local galleries to bring new sales opportunities. So, in 2020, gallery polarization was more serious, local galleries in the second half of the year were more fully prepared and had rich sales results. During the online activities, some galleries and gallery owners were interested and experienced in the new sales model, while some galleries were more conservative. It is believed that with more mature online technology in 2021, local galleries will have more room for self-expansion in the future.

In terms of income and changes in collectors, Dong Daozi said that the overall turnover of most galleries has shrunk, but at the end of the year, due to the reduction in the cost of participating in fairs and exhibitions, the profits of galleries actually increased, and the sales of some galleries even exceeded the past. For collectors, each crisis is a new opportunity, due to the special nature of the industry, a certain crisis can make newcomers to buy works that normally do not have the opportunity to buy, March-September is such a time to see that there are indeed more newcomers to the market.

Li Lanfang also said that opportunities are left to galleries that are prepared, and that galleries with plans and strength have considerable gains in the second half of the year, and encouraged domestic galleries to think of danger in peace and seize opportunities, and to make benign development plans and spaces for galleries. As more collectors can complete their judgment of work preferences online, audiences will accept and get used to such an online model. In the process of capital differentiation in various industry sectors in the past year, collectors have also changed a lot, such as some collectors may become new noble, while some may be influenced to choose conservative collection plans. Therefore, hopefully, the galleries will face the social changes with a calm mind. In 2021, the gallery industry will have a better environment and we hope that galleries will be prepared.

Finally, the two guests gave an outlook on the development of risk resistance and the future of galleries. Dong Daozi believes that for the risk-resistance ability to develop planning according to different galleries, for example, Lisson Gallery’s Shanghai space is smaller and more flexible, so it can quickly allocate resources to more activities and expand the influence of artists in China. Macroscopically, 2021 global is in a state of being split international, need to seek more of their own local space and customer interaction, rather than just rely on the international market.

Li Lanfang said for local galleries, the expansion may not be too fast due to the geographical gap and language factors, but the linkage between galleries and museums galleries and other industries will be more extensive. In the spring and summer of 2021, mainland China should have a better sales environment and new collectors are to enter. As for 2021, we hold a more conservative estimate of international fairs and overseas exhibitions. There may be a better turn as early as the fall of 2021, so local galleries may slow down in terms of expansion.

Breakthrough in the Midst of Change: Global Art Auctions 2020

The art auction market faced a plunge in sales and a contraction in average prices in the first half of 2020 as a result of the pandemic. But auction houses reacted quickly, “digitizing” the auction market “rapidly” and collaborating with other institutions in the field in an “unprecedented” way, breaking through the crisis through innovation in strategy and model. Guo Tong, vice president of China Guardian International Auction Co., Ltd. and head of China Painting and Calligraphy, and Ma Xuedong, director of the investment department of Guardian Investment Holdings Co., Ltd., conducted a professional interpretation of the 2020 auction market through data and auction cases.

Guo Tong said that the auction industry, as an industry that emphasizes “seeing things and people”, was relatively difficult at the beginning of the year, but thanks to the charity auction in February, Guardian’s long-prepared online network was activated and 15 million yuan were raised, which was a proof and a result that gave everyone confidence. Through people’s strong psychological adjustment, a better recovery period has been entered since the second half of the year. Firstly, 183 auctions were conducted online, harvesting 180 million yuan turnover, users reached 400% growth through the client, and after online auctions and synchronized auctions, the amount realized online reached 760 million yuan, which was not expected in early 2020. Under people’s psychological needs and asset layout, more people have formed the perception of the art collection. The spring auction in August as an important moment can be seen that the market has been suppressed for a long time, the structure of the auction items and the setting of the special auction conformed to the state of the market, and played a leading and affirmative role for the mainland auction market, and the spring and autumn auctions conducted by more companies next also saw many good results.

In 2020, the harvest of the “external circulation” was more difficult, and practitioners in the auction industry could only dig into the mainland China market, and thus had the opportunity to recognize the profound power of the Chinese mainland market, but the external circulation cannot achieve the effect of communication and exchange in the long term, which will have an impact on the market in 2021. If based on the “internal circulation” of China for too long, there will also be limitations on the perception, vision and imagination of the collection market.

In terms of online auctions, the pandemic did drive the influence of online platforms, online audiences, collectors, auction items, online production structure also need a long time to design and figure out, need a long time to think. In the market hotspot is not concentrated enough in the transition period, online and offline also face random adjustments in the structure of the auction, with the collectors’ wishes, academic results and the uninterrupted reconfirmation of value orientation; these will become the test of the new year. And the significance of online is more to attract the attention of a wide range of people. The structure of auction items needs to be constantly adjusted to match the market and the wishes of collectors. And the significance of the online platform is still hoping to attract more customers.

For the current Chinese market direction, Ma Xuedong proposed that the report released by the auction association has important significance for the industry trends. The change in the mindset of the buying body can be found in the changes in the art market classification market. In 2019, the basic pattern was that the painting and calligraphy market was still the big one, porcelain miscellaneous was 6.2 billion yuan, oil painting and contemporary art was less than 2 billion yuan. However, as can be seen from other indicators, oil painting and contemporary art were more stable, while porcelain miscellaneous was clearly on the rise. The calligraphy and painting market was still dominated by the domestic market of China. Take Guardian Auctions as an example, in 2020, the total transaction volume was 4.8 billion yuan, and calligraphy and painting accounted for 2.426 billion yuan. There is a clear difference between the collecting interests of oil painting and contemporary art and the Hong Kong market, with more emphasis on localized collecting interests in the mainland of China. In 2020, porcelain miscellaneous transactions had a tendency to shift the focus from Hong Kong to the mainland China market. After the pandemic, among the three segments of ancient, modern and contemporary within the painting and calligraphy segment, it was the ancient that gained strength. Therefore, in the market crisis, collectors prefer works with more stable values. This all shows the changing mentality of different investment subjects.

Challenges and Opportunities of Global Art Fairs

Zhang Zhenglin, professor and master’s supervisor of the School of Art Management and Education at the Central Academy of Fine Arts, and Seo Jin-soo, director of the Korean Art Market Research Institute, expressed their views on local, small and medium-sized art fairs and online art fairs, respectively.

Zhang Zhenglin believes that the observation of art fairs should be placed in a large industrial environment. The pandemic has increased the cost of international travel, and maintaining social distancing has an impact on offline art transactions, which all test the importance of art fairs. The role of the trading platform has also tested the ability of the art fair, especially how to protect the two core capabilities of customer management and profitability. In addition, some important trends can still be found in the context of the pandemic. For example, although the bigger ones are ever bigger, various regional art fairs are still vigorous. For example, some small hotel-type fairs in Taiwan are still held as scheduled. Some achievements have been made; the Taipei Art Fair in 2020, although has relatively few international exhibitors, still created considerable results. Local collectors are supporting local artists.

Zhang Zhenglin also pointed out that although the pandemic was very unexpected, the slowdown in the internationalization of art fairs did not come entirely from the impact of the pandemic. Roughly in 2014 and 2015, the international or cross-border expansion of art fairs has faced the first strategic contraction. From this perspective, business capability remains key, which will allow established and branded fairs to continue to exist in the market. 2021 will continue to be a year of risk and uncertainty for global fairs, and only those fairs that are able to make strategic adjustments, such as maintaining their existing client base, reducing participation fees, and expanding cross-border partnerships and industry chains, will remain viable.

In his opinion, there are three main advantages of online art fairs: 1. convenience, especially for collectors, who can see all artworks at home, learn about fairs, galleries and artworks, and compare them very easily; 2. freedom or equality, as online art fairs can make collectors feel treated equally; 3. lower time cost, both galleries and buyers need to spend a lot of time to attend offline art fairs, for example, buyers need to travel long distances and wait for a long time to enter the fair, while online art fairs do not have these obstacles.

Therefore, Seo Jin-soo believes that convenience, freedom or equality, and lower time costs are the three main advantages of online art fairs. When asked about the cost of participating in art fairs, which on average tops the total cost of gallery participation and puts a lot of pressure on small galleries, and how motivated galleries will be to participate in art fairs in 2021 after the severe impact in 2020, Seo Jin-soo said: As one of the three segments of the art market, galleries will actively participate in art fairs despite the high cost of participation, even online art fairs, because the time of sitting in a gallery and waiting for works to be sold is not the same. The time of sitting in a gallery waiting for works to be sold has passed.

Source: Arts Paper

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